Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
