A mere eight weeks prior when the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager berated him over missing a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his displays were an indicator or a cause of the side's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. When Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, while the positive results have accumulated.
According to the data, in only two games have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team who have put together 10 in a row, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – but at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their talisman to save the day with two precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more against Manchester United.
His opener originated from a superb shot, arced just inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality where, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the player he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the hero faced the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.
